Shift Work

Calculating Risk and the Base Rate Fallacy | Ep 87

September 06, 2023 Luke Layman Episode 87
Shift Work
Calculating Risk and the Base Rate Fallacy | Ep 87
Show Notes

Ever found yourself on the edge of a major decision or opportunity, unsure of the risks involved? It’s true that entrepreneurs and business owners are no strangers to risk. But unfortunately, we often label things as "too risky" or "uncomfortable" without really considering all the variables at play.

Today I’m going to break down risk into a simple mathematical formula and shine a light on a common mistake that might be holding you back from your desired success. I'll introduce a cognitive bias that's been making us misjudge risk plus share three practical rules you can apply right now to make more accurate risk assessments.

In this episode, I talk about…..

  • Understanding risk with a simple formula.
  • Defining probability and impact. 
  • The significance of understanding the base rate.
  • A cognitive bias that leads people astray.
  • Three rules for risk you need to remember.

This episode is full of tools and strategies to maximize your profit, grow your business, and reclaim your freedom! Take a listen!

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